The hottest inflection point of supply and demand

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"The inflection point of supply and demand" may be approaching the end of the strong crossbow of iron ore price

"the inflection point of supply and demand" said Yang Qingdong, counsellor of the Chinese Embassy in Mongolia: "as of now" or the end of the strong crossbow of iron ore price

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the rise of iron ore price is the end of the strong crossbow! Perhaps the iron ore price can climb to the historical high of $190 from the current $160, but this has not hindered the crazy stone, which will enter a long downward channel for a long time in the future. In the past ten years

the price rise of iron ore is at the end of strength! Perhaps the iron ore price can climb to the historical high of $190 from the current $160, but this has not hindered the "Crazy Stone", which will enter a long downward channel for a long time in the future

in the past ten years, iron ore has risen from more than $20 to nearly $200, which is crazy. During this period, although the domestic practice of taking advantage of the monopoly position of the three major mines to make huge profits was criticized a lot, it is undeniable that it is the strong domestic demand for iron ore that created this bull market in iron ore

data show that during the decade from 2000 to 2010, China's iron ore demand increased by an average of 16.2% annually, for domestic laboratory machine manufacturers; Imported ore increased by 24.4%. In contrast, China's crude steel output surged from 130 million tons in 2000 to more than 600 million tons in 2010

but now the fundamentals are beginning to change, and the long-awaited "inflection point of supply and demand" of CISA has finally arrived. First, according to the law of supply and demand, the market supply and price change in the same direction, that is, the price rises, and the supply increases. The soaring price of iron ore has greatly stimulated investment worldwide

according to the introduction, in 2010, the domestic iron concentrate production capacity was about 400 million tons, and the average cost was about 85 US dollars/ton. Although this was much higher than the cost of the three major mines, there was still a lot of profit space compared with the current price of 160 US dollars/ton, which undoubtedly stimulated the enthusiasm of domestic mine production

it is understood that due to the existence of profit space, the supply capacity of domestic iron ore increased significantly last year, which led to the decline of China's external dependence on iron ore for the first time in recent years. Data show that during the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, with the rising price of iron ore, the investment in domestic mines also increased significantly, from less than 40 billion in 2006 to 106.6 billion yuan in 2010

windfall profits also stimulated global investment. According to Xu Xiangchun's prediction, the new iron ore production capacity outside China in the next three years is determined to be 271 million tons, plus 678 million tons of planned construction and possible production. In terms of the three mines, the increment will also reach about 500 million tons by 2015

but in less than two years, these enthusiastic investors will find that the demand is not as strong as they think. As early as the beginning of the year, CISA said that China's steel demand will reverse during the 12th Five Year Plan period, with an average annual growth rate slowing to 2.6%. In terms of iron ore, the demand for imported ore will slow down from an average annual growth rate of 17.46% in the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" to 3.1%, while the increase in China's iron ore demand during the whole "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period is only about 250 million tons

this is really a depressing fact. Because of China's huge market volume, even the strong demand of emerging economies is not enough to make up for the losses caused by the decline in China's market demand. In fact, the three mines don't believe how long the current windfall profits can last. They have become extremely sensitive. Even in the case of domestic power shortage, they will carefully evaluate the possible losses. At the same time, these giants also began to show their kindness to China frequently

the Australian Bureau of agricultural resources and economics predicted in March this year that the Australian mining price would fall to $93/ton by 2016. It's been 30 years, 30 years, but if China's steel industry still can't change the current messy situation, then it will be so, including garbage containers, car fuel tanks, car exterior accessories, which may be difficult to be optimistic in terms of profitability

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