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China Association of automobile manufacturers' information conference in January 2020

] the automotive industry has experienced a very difficult year in 2019, with the continuous decline of the market and the decline of operating efficiency, and enterprises are under great pressure. When the total market sales fell by 8.2%, the industrial added value increased by 1.8%, which also shows that the business quality of mainstream enterprises in the automotive industry is improving, showing strong resilience. Today, China's automobile industry has entered a new stage of industrial transformation and upgrading. In the process of continuously promoting the supply side reform and developing to high quality, it shows many positive aspects, such as the continuous improvement of business efficiency, the continuous improvement of market response ability, and the continuous strengthening of industry toughness

at the beginning of this year, the China Automobile Association predicted that the automotive industry would end the in-depth adjustment in 2019, and would gradually recover in the next few years, and the overall market would stabilize in 2020. However, the sudden COVID-19 disrupted the normal operation rhythm of the industry. In the short term, the production and sales of cars will be greatly impacted, and the parts supply system will be disrupted; In the long run, the "Butterfly Effect" of the epidemic will gradually appear, or will affect the future pattern of the global automotive industry

in the face of the epidemic, China's automobile industry enterprises resolutely implement the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council. The majority of enterprise leaders, cadres and employees take positive actions and continue to fight hard in the front line of the fight against the epidemic, showing a high degree of enterprise society and emerging one touching story after another. At present, except for the areas with serious epidemic, automobile enterprises in other regions are trying their best to resume production and strive to minimize the impact

I. the economic operation of the automobile industry in January 2020

(I) the production and sales of automobiles decreased significantly

in January, according to the statistical data of key enterprise groups of the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of automobiles were 1.783 million and 1.941 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 33.5% and 27.0% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.6% and 18.0% respectively. The Spring Festival holiday this year is in January, with 17 effective working days, 5 days less than last year; In addition, considering that some units have holidays in advance, the less effective working days is the main reason for the decline in production and sales in January this year. After January 20, the COVID-19 began to affect, but as it was close to the Spring Festival holiday, we judged that the impact on the data in January was limited

(II) production and sales fell sharply year-on-year

in January, the production and sales of passenger cars are expected to be 1.444 million and 1.614 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 33.9% and 27.1% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 27.6% and 20.2% respectively, which is greater than the overall decline of cars

(III) the production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased year-on-year

in January, the production and sales of commercial vehicles are expected to be 341000 and 326000 respectively, with a month on month decrease of 31.4% and 26.7% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% and 5.7% respectively

the sample can still be restored to its original state (IV) a sharp year-on-year decrease

in January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be 40000 and 44000 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 55.4% and 54.4% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars are expected to be 35000 and 39000, with a year-on-year decrease of 56.3% and 54.5% respectively; The production and sales of commercial vehicles are expected to reach 5000 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 37.4% and 51.7% respectively

II. The impact of COVID-19 on the industry

the COVID-19 has spread rapidly since late January 2020, bringing a huge impact on China's economy and people's lives. The automobile industry depends on macroeconomic development and faces greater challenges. The supply chain problems, market problems, and financial pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises of parts and components caused by the epidemic undoubtedly add to the downward pressure on the automotive industry

Hubei, where the epidemic is serious, accounts for about 8%-9% of the country's annual automobile production. Guangdong and Zhejiang, which are relatively serious, are also major provinces of China's automobile industry. In addition to directly affecting the production and sales of local vehicle enterprises, there are many parts supporting enterprises in the above three regions. Even if other regions have the conditions to start construction, due to the national supporting of vehicle manufacturers and the long industrial chain, the supply of one part will affect the production process of the whole factory, so the supply of parts will restrict the production rhythm of vehicles in the short term

after the occurrence of the COVID-19, the China Automobile Association immediately carried out an investigation on the impact of the epidemic in the industry. According to the comprehensive analysis of the information fed back by more than 300 vehicle and parts enterprises interviewed at present, the short-term impact of the epidemic on China's economy is greater than that of SARS in 2003, and it has a greater impact on the automotive industry that was originally in the adjustment period. Industry enterprises believe that with the central and local governments successively issuing a series of monetary and fiscal policies to restore the economy, stabilize market expectations, and support the development of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, as well as the COVID-19, which is expected to be effectively prevented and controlled as soon as possible, they firmly believe that the epidemic will bring short-term impact to the economy, will not change the trend of long-term stable development, and the fundamentals of China's economic growth will remain, This is extremely important for the development of the automotive industry

from the perspective of the impact of the industry with clt-o - the average horizontal compressive strength (n/cm) of inner and outer paper, it is mainly reflected in the following five aspects:

(I) the demand for cars and consumption capacity have decreased significantly in the short term

since the outbreak of the epidemic, the whole society has mobilized to strengthen the prevention and control measures and means of the epidemic, and consumers have also increased their awareness of self-protection, home self isolation, and prevent the further deterioration of the epidemic. This has greatly reduced consumers' short-term car buying behavior and seriously affected car sales. This factor will continue to affect for a period of time after the first-class response to the COVID-19 is lifted; At the same time, the epidemic has a great impact on the operation of some industries, such as transportation, catering, tourism, shopping malls, film and television, which will directly affect the operation of enterprises in these industries, especially small and micro enterprises, and reduce the income of relevant employees, thus affecting the replacement demand of cities such as the first to third tier alloy high carbon steel (or low carbon alloy steel), cold working die steel, and the first purchase demand of vehicles in rural areas such as cities and towns below the fourth tier. In addition, since 2018, low - and middle-income people have suffered multiple shocks, and once again encountered the epidemic without the recovery of the underlying consumption capacity, which has worsened the income situation of this group, further weakened the consumption capacity, and further reduced the overall consumption demand for cars in the short term

(II) the production progress of enterprises is blocked

affected by the epidemic, all parts of the country have issued notices of delayed resumption of work. According to the survey and statistics of more than 300 automobile and parts enterprises conducted by the China Automobile Association, the delay in resumption of work has led to an average of less than previous years (longer in Hubei). Most regions also require personnel to return to work and observe at home, further delaying the pace of resumption of work, resulting in insufficient productivity of enterprises and affecting product manufacturing. The rework and isolation of non local employees in vehicle enterprises will result in a certain proportion of front-line personnel gap. Insufficient operating rate will increase the risk of insufficient supply in production links at all levels of the industry; At the same time, the lack of personnel protection materials is also difficult to support the production resumption needs of enterprises; Many provinces, cities, regions and township roads have introduced measures such as strict traffic restrictions and high-speed inspections, which have affected the transportation of finished vehicles and parts, and further exacerbated the production problems of enterprises. Especially for the enterprises in charge of expediting the production of negative pressure ambulances in the near future, any hindrance will affect the production of finished vehicles, thereby causing delays in order delivery

according to the calculation that the enterprise starts less than 10 days, and the personnel and industrial chain supply cannot meet the production needs in the short term after the resumption of work, it is expected to affect the industrial output of more than one million vehicles. If the downtime is further extended, the output impact in February will further expand. At the same time, due to the impact of resumption of work and transportation problems, the production and operation of domestic and even global industrial chains have been delayed, which will also cause foreign automobile enterprises to adjust their production layout in order to avoid the supply chain risks caused by regional emergencies in the future

(III) increasing export difficulties for enterprises

the World Health Organization has announced that the epidemic of pneumonia infected with covid-19 has constituted a public health emergency of international concern. Based on this, some countries and enterprises have refused to accept the ordered goods and cancelled the original orders on the grounds of preventing the spread of the epidemic

according to incomplete statistics, more than 60 countries have issued entry control measures against China, which has also hindered China's automobile enterprises from exploring overseas markets and made it more difficult to export automobiles and parts. At the same time, due to the supply chain tension caused by the failure to resume work in time, the delivery of export orders was delayed, which had a negative impact on the subsequent order signing of enterprises

(IV) the hidden danger of capital chain fracture of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased.

affected by the delay of resumption of work, the production and business of automobile enterprises have been suspended, and the income and cash flow have been interrupted, but the rent, wages, interest and other expenses still need to be paid, which greatly tests the financial strength of enterprises. According to the survey results of the industry enterprises conducted by the China Automobile Association, the parts enterprises are more affected. At the same time, business interruption may lead to the breach of order contracts and exacerbate the difficulties in capital turnover. Some small and medium-sized enterprises (mainly parts enterprises) with weak anti risk ability will face the dilemma of bankruptcy

(V) the difficulty for enterprises to deal with standards and regulations has increased significantly

previously, the national six year plan issued by the Ministry of ecological environment required that light vehicles implement more stringent particle quantity (PN) limits on July 1, 2020, as well as the national implementation of the national six year plan (phase a); The third stage of the standard "safety technical conditions for operating trucks Part 1: trucks" (jt/t 1178.1-2018) previously issued by the Ministry of transport will be implemented on May 1, 2020, and the standard "safety technical conditions for operating trucks Part 2: towing vehicles and trailers" (jt/t 1178.2-2019) is expected to be implemented on May 1, 2020. Due to the negative impact of the epidemic on production and sales, it is difficult for enterprises to digest existing inventory (products, parts and components) before the date of implementation of relevant standards. At the same time, the resumption time of testing institutions and test sites has been delayed again and again, which has also extended the product certification cycle of enterprises, thus delaying the time of product listing. Combined with the low efficiency of enterprises, some enterprises may eventually be unable to sell new products as planned after the implementation of the standards

III. preliminary study and judgment on the industrial development situation in the next stage

(I) the short-term impact is relatively large, and the annual market is not optimistic

at the current stage, the epidemic is still continuing, the resumption of work of automobile and parts enterprises has just begun, and they are also facing the problems of personnel shortage, lack of epidemic prevention mask disinfectant, heavy workload of epidemic prevention monitoring at the work site, and the normal recovery of parts supply chain system; Especially at present, the epidemic prevention and control is in the most critical period, consumer confidence has not recovered, and consumer demand for cars is also in a state of inhibition. According to the current information, the COVID-19 will have a great impact on the operation of the automotive industry in the first quarter, and the production and sales of the industry will decline significantly. After the end of the epidemic, the suppressed consumer demand will be released in the short term, and the automobile market will usher in a short consumption peak. The trend of the whole year will be from low to high, but the development situation of the automobile market throughout the year is still not optimistic

(II) various measures to ensure and promote the resumption of work and production

the economic security policies recently introduced by local governments will also effectively reduce the burden on enterprises, help enterprises out of difficulties to a certain extent, and promote

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